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A latest poll survey suggests that while both National and Labour are facing declining public support, most New Zealanders are not convinced that replacing their leaders would improve either party’s chances at the next general election.
The poll shows National has fallen to its lowest level of support since Christopher Luxon became leader, while Labour has also slipped despite making gains in recent months. Even so, a majority of voters remain either opposed to or uncertain about changing the leadership of either major party.
The findings come after months of speculation over Christopher Luxon’s future. Earlier this year, questions about his leadership intensified before he secured the backing of National MPs through a caucus confidence vote in April. Labour leader Chris Hipkins has also periodically faced scrutiny, most recently following personal comments made by his former wife on social media.
National: Support for Change Still Limited
Asked whether National would be better placed to win the next election with a new leader, 31.9 percent of respondents said yes. However, 44.7 percent disagreed, while 23.4 percent were unsure.
Although support for a leadership change has increased since September 2025, when only 24.7 percent favoured replacing Luxon, most voters still do not believe a new leader would significantly improve National’s fortunes.
When respondents were asked who should replace Luxon if a change were made, Housing and Infrastructure Minister Chris Bishop received the highest support at 13.7 percent, followed by Finance Minister Nicola Willis on 12.5 percent and Education Minister Erica Stanford on 11 percent.
However, the biggest result was that 42.2 percent of respondents could not identify a preferred replacement, suggesting no clear successor has emerged.
Among National supporters, Nicola Willis was the preferred choice with 26 percent support, ahead of Chris Bishop (14.4 percent) and Erica Stanford (12.6 percent). Nearly three in ten National voters remained undecided.
Labour Faces Similar Sentiment
Labour recorded a similar pattern. The poll found 29.7 percent of respondents believed the party would perform better under a new leader, while 43 percent disagreed and 27.4 percent were unsure.
Support for replacing Chris Hipkins has also risen slightly since September, but most voters remain unconvinced that a leadership change would improve Labour’s electoral prospects.
Among possible successors, Kieran McAnulty was the only Labour frontbencher to attract double-digit support, polling 16.2 percent. Megan Woods followed with 6 percent.
Like National, Labour lacks a widely recognised alternative, with more than half of respondents (52 percent) saying they did not know who should replace Hipkins.
Leaders Show Modest Recovery
Despite weaker party support, both leaders recorded modest improvements in their personal approval ratings after reaching record lows earlier this year.
About 34.4 percent of respondents said Christopher Luxon was performing well as Prime Minister, while 47.2 percent rated his performance poorly. His net performance score improved from -20.6 in March to -12.8.
Chris Hipkins fared slightly better, with 37.4 percent approving of his performance as Opposition leader and 37 percent disapproving. His net favourability stood at a marginally positive 0.4.
Voters Prioritise Performance Over Personalities
The poll suggests New Zealanders are becoming more open to the idea of leadership changes, but there is still no overwhelming demand for either National or Labour to replace their leaders.
As both parties prepare for the next election, the survey points to a broader message: voters appear more interested in effective leadership, credible policies and strong performance than simply changing the person at the top. With neither National nor Labour offering an obvious replacement capable of transforming public opinion, stability may remain the preferred option—for now. -TIN Bureau