Government Celebrates Drop in Violent Crime – But Says There’s Still Work to Do

The government is feeling optimistic after new data suggests a notable drop in violent crime across New Zealand. But while ministers are celebrating the progress, they’re also being honest about the ups and downs that come with interpreting these kinds of statistics.

According to the latest quarterly survey, there were around 28,000 fewer victims of violent crime compared to the figures from October 2023. That’s not just a win—it actually surpasses the government’s own goal of reducing serious violent crime by 20,000 victims by 2029.

“This is very encouraging and shows that our efforts to restore law and order are making a real impact,” said Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith. But, there’s a catch.

This data is drawn from surveys that ask people about their experiences over the past year, and it covers a time period from February 2023 to February 2024. So, while the results are promising, they reflect changes that may have started before recent government measures took full effect.

Goldsmith acknowledged the timing issue, saying, “We know the data can be volatile, but these results are solid enough that we felt they were worth sharing early. The full government target updates won’t be out until June, but this is still great news.”

He also pointed out that while things are moving in the right direction, it’s not time to relax just yet.

PM Christopher Luxon echoed that sentiment.

“We’re making real progress, and it’s worth taking a moment to acknowledge that,” he said. “But there’s still a long road ahead to get us to where we want to be.”

When asked if the positive numbers might actually reflect the previous government’s approach, Luxon was quick to disagree.

“That approach clearly wasn’t working,” he said. “They focused on reducing the prison population, which sounds good in theory—but we want that to happen because crime is down, not just as a standalone goal.”

Over the past 16 months, Luxon said, the current government has been busy introducing tough new legislation designed to make New Zealanders feel safer—from cracking down on gang activity to putting forward new sentencing laws and ending cultural reports in court.

Justice Minister Goldsmith added, “The message is clear—we’re done with a culture of excuses. People need to be held accountable, and that’s starting to show in the numbers.”

In terms of regional impact, Auckland saw 12,000 fewer victimisations, and Canterbury was down by 5,000.

Police Minister Mark Mitchell also weighed in, saying that while the number of gang members has gone up, the government is steadily building up police resources and the early signs from the survey are “moving in the right direction.”

It’s important to note, however, that these quarterly updates from the Ministry of Justice aren’t normally released and can fluctuate more than the full annual data. The ministry cautions against reading too much into differences between annual estimates and quarterly snapshots, as they use slightly different methods.

Still, for the government, this feels like a win—and a sign they’re on the right path.